At Greentown Labs, we convene the changemakers of climatetech: innovators, investors, corporates, and government leaders. In collaboration with Lux Research, we recently hosted a forum on critical minerals and supply-chain resilience—a conversation that revealed urgency, complexity, and opportunity in equal measure.

As the clean-energy transition accelerates, the global demand for minerals such as lithium, cobalt, copper, and rare-earth elements is surging. But the supply chains for these resources are fragile, opaque, and geopolitically entangled, especially with ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China and the latter’s continued control over the vast majority of refining capacity. For startups and investors alike, the question is not if this sector is deserving of innovation and investment, but how best to navigate its unending complexities. 

We were thrilled to have leaders from Amazon, BHP, BlueShift, Clean Energy Ventures, ENEOS, FAST Metals, GC Ventures, MassCEC, MIT’s Material Research Laboratory, Phoenix Tailings, Shell, and SLB join this industry forum to share their perspectives.

Why Critical Minerals are a Climatetech Priority

The path to net-zero runs through critical minerals. Every commercial-scale battery, electric vehicle, wind turbine, and solar panel relies on elements with limited geographic availability, constrained production, and underdeveloped recycling systems.

Today, only a handful of countries dominate the extraction of most critical minerals—and China alone refines over 85% of rare-earth elements and close to 60% of lithium compounds. This hyper-concentration creates both geopolitical risk and market volatility, which disincentivizes traditional corporate investment while also creating space for startup innovation.

But forum participants agreed: supply chain resilience is no longer optional when it comes to critical minerals. It’s a strategic imperative for national security, industrial competitiveness, and climate stability.

The Opportunity for Startups: The Four Categories Where Innovation Is Needed

1. Refining & Processing 

Refining is the single greatest bottleneck in the critical-minerals value chain. Startups that can develop environmentally compliant, modular, and cost-efficient refining technologies—especially outside China—will play a pivotal role. Multiple attendees identified direct lithium extraction and purification as high-need areas, while there was also significant discussion over the opportunity for co-location of refining sites with other industrial assets. 

Startup opportunity: Innovate in clean refining, low-emission metallurgy, and rare-earth separation processes that can scale responsibly in the West.

2. Circularity & Recycling 

With the potential for export restrictions on used battery materials (e.g. “black mass”)—like those seen in the European Union—localized recycling ecosystems become even more critical. Numerous corporates in attendance emphasized the value of battery recycling and materials recovery. The opportunity to achieve Scope 3 decarbonization goals through investment in supply chain circularity was also highlighted.

Startup opportunity: Build technologies for urban mining, black-mass recycling, and closed-loop systems for lithium-ion batteries and electronics—like the one developed between Greentown member American Battery Technology Company and Greentown partner BASF. 

Greentown startups innovating in this area:

3. Supply-Chain Visibility, Risk-Management Tools, & Asset Optimization

From tariffs and ESG compliance to origin tracking, managing the complexity of mineral sourcing is no small task. One corporate flagged that software can often be more investable than physical infrastructure, and how supply-chain software that enables traceability, compliance, and scenario planning is in high demand. In addition, solutions that monitor and optimize the performance of energy assets can mitigate the growing demand for critical minerals. 

Startup opportunity: Create digital twins of mineral supply chains, dynamic pricing models, or real-time ESG-compliance platforms tailored to minerals; develop testing, diagnostic, or monitoring systems that improve battery, solar farm, or turbine efficiencies. 

Greentown startups innovating in this area:

4. Alternative Chemistries, Materials, & Design

Long-term material substitution is a potential pressure-release valve. Sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, and rare -earth-free motors were identified as promising frontiers, even as these pathways face technical uncertainty and long commercialization cycles.

Startup opportunity: Pursue drop-in replacements, novel chemistries, and optimized or efficient designs that reduce dependency on constrained materials.

Greentown startups innovating in this area:

Key Structural Challenges—and How Startups Can Navigate Them

1. The “Valley of Death” Remains Real

The gap between lab-scale and commercial scale (Technology Readiness Level 7+) is still the biggest hurdle for startups on the path to market. Pilots are expensive, timelines are long, and investors can be highly risk adverse with regular fluctuations in commodity pricing.

What Helps:

• Work with Greentown’s network to find co-development partners
• As much as possible, leverage government as a de-risking mechanism or partner (e.g., U.S. Department of Energy grants, U.S. Department of Defense supply-chain funds)
• Structure your go-to-market strategy in modular phases with measurable milestones to boost investor confidence in the face of geopolitical turmoil or market fluctuations
  

2. Permitting and Social License

As one attendee noted, U.S.-based mining projects can spend 20+ years in development without breaking ground, often due to lags in permitting and community concern over environmental impact. It could serve startups to avoid traditional mining risk entirely—or partner with best-in-class players who have earned social license through leading community-management practices.

What Helps:

• Focus on above-ground resources (e.g., recycling, tailings, brine)
• Emphasize and prioritize community engagement and environmental stewardship as product differentiators
  

3. Timeframe Misalignment

VCs want ROI in three to five years; mineral supply chains operate on 15- to 30-year cycles. This disconnect hinders investment and scale.

What Helps:

• Frame your risk model within the context of portfolio diversification and management
• Pursue blended capital—particularly investors with low cost of capital and long investment timelines, such as insurance providers or sovereign wealth funds 
• Position your offering as a call option on future resilience and emphasize the need for long-term planning
  

Greentown’s Role: Convening, Catalyzing, and Connecting

Startups cannot solve the critical minerals crisis alone. But they can lead—with the right partners. At Greentown, we see our role as:

• A supportive platform for collaboration across public, private, and academic sectors
• A launchpad for startups tackling deeply technical, systems-level challenges in climate and energy
• A bridge to policymakers who can de-risk early markets and fund infrastructure that unlocks innovation
  

Startups, investors, and corporate partners discuss resilience in the critical minerals supply chain at the Greentown Labs industry forum in partnership with Lux Research in June 2025.

What Comes Next?

The forum participants were aligned: the risks are clear, the needs are urgent, and the innovations are emerging. But realizing resilient supply chains requires:

• New funding models—long-horizon capital and shared-risk consortia
• Cross-sector coordination—from manufacturers to recyclers to policymakers
• Startups with vision—that are willing to tackle hard problems with high-impact potential
  

At Greentown, we’re ready to support those startups. Because in the race for critical minerals, innovation isn’t just an opportunity—it’s a necessity.

To support more content like this and help resource startups innovating critical minerals solutions, please donate to Greentown’s mission and success. Learn how to take action with our startups here.  

Georgina Campbell Flatter is Greentown’s CEO. Aisling Carlson is Greentown’s SVP of Partnerships and Investor Programs.

Header photo: Nth Cycle celebrates the opening of its North American headquarters in Burlington, MA.